🇺🇸High importance
US CPI
United States· USD· Inflation
Next release
14 июл. 2026 г.
15:00 · UTC+0
- Forecast
- —
- Previous
- 0.3%
Previous release
10 июн. 2026 г. · 12:30
in line with forecast- Actual
- 0.5%
- Forecast
- 0.5%
- Prev.
- 0.6%
How the market reacted
EURUSD · 30 min: -2.7 pips ↘
EURUSD · 60 min: +9.8 pips ↗
Base-rate brief
US CPI · Month over month (MoM)
The main instrument for this event is EURUSD; XAUUSD, BTC act as confirmation.
Below forecast
Soft US inflation versus forecast: historically the market more often sold the dollar move.
EUR/USD · основной
fell 11 of 16 (68.8%)· 60 min· median -6.8 pips
XAU/USD · подтверждение
fell 9 of 12 (75%)· 30 min· median -23.1 pips
BTC · крипто
fell 10 of 12 (83.3%)· 60 min· median -0.2%
Above forecast
Hot US inflation versus forecast: historically the market more often bought the dollar move.
EUR/USD · основной
fell 6 of 9 (66.7%)· 60 min· median -0.4 pips
XAU/USD · подтверждение
fell 7 of 9 (77.8%)· 60 min· median -46.5 pips
BTC · крипто
fell 6 of 9 (66.7%)· 60 min· median -0.2%
Sample: 16 releases below forecast / 9 above. The base updates after recomputation. This is historical context, not a signal or advice.
Release history · 35
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Prev. | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 июн. 2026 г. | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | in line |
| 12 мая 2026 г. | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | in line |
| 10 апр. 2026 г. | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | in line |
| 11 мар. 2026 г. | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | in line |
| 13 февр. 2026 г. | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | below |
| 13 янв. 2026 г. | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | in line |
| 24 окт. 2025 г. | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | below |
| 11 сент. 2025 г. | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | above |
| 12 авг. 2025 г. | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | in line |
| 15 июл. 2025 г. | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | in line |
| 11 июн. 2025 г. | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | below |
| 13 мая 2025 г. | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1% | below |
| 10 апр. 2025 г. | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | below |
| 12 мар. 2025 г. | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | below |
| 12 февр. 2025 г. | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | above |
| 15 янв. 2025 г. | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | above |
| 11 дек. 2024 г. | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | in line |
| 13 нояб. 2024 г. | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | in line |
| 10 окт. 2024 г. | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | above |
| 11 сент. 2024 г. | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | in line |
| 14 авг. 2024 г. | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.1% | in line |
| 11 июл. 2024 г. | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0% | below |
| 12 июн. 2024 г. | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | below |
| 15 мая 2024 г. | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | below |